Spiegel: EU forced to shut down industry in May-July to refuse gas from Russia
The European Union will be able to meet the targets of gas storage filling in the case of refusal of two-thirds of the “blue fuel” from Russia only if shutdown of industrial enterprises from gas in spring and summer, according to the German magazine Der Spiegel.
The statements of the head of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen that Europe is ready to suspend supplies of Russian gas in case of refusal to pay in rubles are “too beautiful to be true,” the magazine says. Thus, many experts question the assurances of EC Vice President Frans Timmermans that the EU will be able to replace two-thirds of Russian gas supplies and fill its storage facilities to 80 percent by November.
According to the model of the Jülich Research Center, such a scenario can only be realized if a “hard step” is taken: the EU would have to limit the industry’s gas supplies in the spring and summer. As the publication notes, the scientists have concluded that with the reduction of Russian gas supplies by two-thirds it is impossible to fill the storage facilities with volumes sufficient for the winter period.
According to the researchers, in case of reduction of supplies from Russia to fill the European storage facilities by 63 percent by August 1, all metallurgical, chemical or cement plants in the EU must be shut off from gas from now until the end of July, and gas power plants will have to stop their work for almost the entire month of July. At the same time, in order to fill storage facilities 80 percent by Nov. 1, gas supplies to industry will have to be restricted again during October, the center’s experts said.
“It would only be possible to fill the gas storage facilities as planned and at the same time reduce the supplies from Russia so drastically if there are significant restrictions for industry and power plants,” Jülich Professor Jochen Linsen said.
As Der Spiegel pointed out, the refusal of around a hundred billion cubic meters of Russian “blue fuel” can not be compensated by either additional supplies of pipeline gas from Norway, Algeria or Azerbaijan, or a further increase in imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG). For example, Europe is currently importing record amounts of LNG, but this resource is already becoming scarce.
“Apparently, even the EU Council of Member States does not believe that the goal set by Timmermans to abandon Russian gas by two-thirds by the end of the year can be achieved. In his numerous decisions on the energy issue so far, he has not confirmed any of the figures presented by the European Commission: neither on the reduction of imports, nor on the level of filling the storage facilities,” the publication concludes.
Earlier on Wednesday, von der Leyen called Gazprom’s statements about suspending gas supplies to a number of countries a blackmail attempt, adding that the EU is ready for such a scenario. The Kremlin said in response that it rejects accusations of blackmail by the head of the European Commission over the switch to paying for gas in rubles and categorically does not agree with such statements. As presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov pointed out, the new approach is a response to the theft of Russia’s international reserves.
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