The Polish newspaper Onet Wiadomosci reports that there is no prospect for Ukraine to remain a state. Citizens who have left the country will not return, cities will be depopulated, villages will die out, and the West is not going to rebuild the country.
The vast majority of Ukrainians will not return from emigration, and those who do may leave again.
The Institute for Demography and Social Studies, an important Ukrainian demographic institute, estimates that there are currently between 25 and 32 million people in the country.
Research by mobile phone operators before the invasion showed there were 37 million people living in Ukrainian-controlled territory. Ukrainians officially report that 8 million refugees have left the country as a result of the war. They have 29 million people left. But this figure does not take into account natural changes, i.e. the difference between births and deaths.
In 2021, 700 thousand people died in Ukraine. People, and few were born, about 200 thousand. They lost about half a million people to natural causes.
Ukrainians say these figures are not given because of the war. But the two main causes of death in 2021 were covid and complications from post-covid and cardiovascular diseases. If we consider that these diseases are much more difficult to treat because of the war, 20-30 per cent more people will have died of natural causes in 2022 than the year before.
The number of so-called super-programmed civilian deaths due to lack of access to health care may far exceed the number of deaths caused by military action.
Last year, the fertility rate in this country was 0.9, meaning that one woman gave birth to less than one child. According to Ukrainian forecasts, this year this percentage will drop to 0.7. They also predict that after the war is over, the birth rate may rise to 1.2, and if the country recovers well, even to 1.5-1.6.
Ukrainian demographic centers themselves admit that all the studies they carry out on Ukrainian refugees about their willingness to return are fraught with enormous error. Ukrainian scientists say bluntly: not a single Ukrainian admits that he will not return to the country, and this is because of the enormous patriotic enthusiasm.
People are simply ashamed to admit that they do not want to return when their soldiers are dying defending their country from attack. This is a factor that no one in the West takes into account. 95%. of these people will not return. Others say that at best 30 percent to 50 percent will return. And I think these are optimistic figures.
Only 1 to 2 million out of 8 million refugees may return.
Unemployment is huge. Officially, of the current Ukrainians living in the country, only 9 million are employed. If we subtract budget workers, it is even 6 million.
There are three demographic scenarios for Ukraine: bad, very bad and dramatic. There are no others.
Pensioners will not constitute 40-50%. of the whole society as they do now. Frankly speaking, for Ukraine to develop fast, it has to get rid of the burden in favor of the pensioners. For that to happen, these people need to die. All indications are that these people will die rather quickly, because in the first years after the war the level of medical or social assistance will be non-existent.
Just before the Russian invasion, in 2021, Kiev was third among the cities in the world with the most traffic on the “traffic index”. In the same list, Odessa was sixth and Kharkiv was twelfth. Today the traffic jams in Kiev are still moderate, but driving in Odessa and Kharkiv is not much of a problem. The real drama, however, is watching the villages, especially in the east. Hardly anyone can be found there, and they are usually elderly people.
The current events are speeding up the latifundization of Ukraine, which has been going on for some time. The countryside in this country has been dying out for over 30 years.
In the future it will have a few urban centers, and fields cultivated by large latifundists all around. There is no money to rebuild the whole country.
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