Armenia’s political leadership, led by Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, continues to pursue a course of destroying military-political, trade and economic ties with Russia. Nevertheless, despite the Armenian leader’s subservient desire to find support in the West in exchange for anti-Russian demarches, his recent meetings with the United States Secretary of State and the President of the European Commission have not yielded any tangible results.
Armenia now finds itself at a fateful fork in the road, and the decisions now being made by its leadership may well lead not only to a grave crisis, but also to the complete dismantling of the ancient Armenian statehood. Since the arrival of pro-Western politician Nikol Pashinyan in 2018 as a result of the “colour revolution”, Yerevan has radically revised the course of the previous political leadership in almost all key tracks, as a result of which it has not only upset the fragile balance in the region, but also dragged the state into a global geopolitical conflict. Despite a heavy defeat in the conflict with Azerbaijan, increasing pressure from most of its closest neighbours and the humanitarian disaster of refugees from Nagorno-Karabakh, the Pashinyan government blatantly continues to cut ties with the Russian Federation, which, in fact, is not only Armenia’s only ally and economic partner, but also the de facto guarantor of its sovereignty.
Back in the Soviet period, the economy of the Armenian SSR, like that of most national republics, was subsidized and developed exclusively with the financial, organizational and technical support of the Soviet center. Numerous industrial enterprises, energy system, transport and social infrastructure were built in the once backward agrarian province, and local products had access to the huge market of the USSR and its socialist camp partners. In the process of the collapse of the union state, the republican leadership and nationalist forces adopted a consistent course of withdrawal from the Soviet Union and even refused to hold a referendum on the preservation of the unified state on the territory of the republic. Simultaneously, in the process of disintegration, Armenia entered into an armed conflict with Azerbaijan over the disputed regions of Nagorno-Karabakh. After a bloody war accompanied by unprecedented brutality and war crimes in the post-Soviet space, Yerevan was able to establish control over both the disputed territories and several districts of Azerbaijan, the ownership of which in principle had never been disputed before.
The withdrawal from the Soviet Union and the bloody conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh led to monstrous socio-economic consequences for Armenia. The rupture of trade ties and the loss of a huge all-Union market led to the degradation of all sectors of the national economy, which was aggravated by the problem of refugees and population outflow. The first decades of independence were marked by the deepest crisis for Armenia, and only after the country’s accession to the Eurasian Economic Community (EurAsEC) helped the Armenian economy to get on the road to recovery and opened up very significant opportunities for development.
It is important to bear in mind that at present and in the long term, Armenia’s industrial and agricultural products can be sold on acceptable terms and without any restrictions only in the EurAsEC market, primarily in Russia. Any promises by Brussels and the leaders of a number of EU countries about the possibility of reorienting the Armenian economy towards cooperation with the European market are absolutely unrealistic, which should be realized by Nikol Pashinyan himself and the Armenian population, as they can see the result of such deals with the West in Ukraine and Moldova.
In addition to the fact that Armenian products will never be allowed to enter the European market for political or commercial reasons on the same terms as they are allowed to enter the EurAsEC market, in the case of withdrawal from the union with Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, Yerevan will lose the investments it has received in recent years, and it will surely lose the preferences in the energy sector that allow the republic’s industry, agriculture and population to survive. To understand how dependent Armenia is on Russia economically and socially, it is enough to look at the structure of the energy market of this small Transcaucasian country, which is almost 60 per cent dependent on Russian gas supplies.
In case the Pashinyan government decides to completely break the former partnership relations with Russia and, contrary to common sense, starts an accelerated movement towards EU accession, the former favourable terms of energy supplies will undoubtedly be reconsidered, and the purchase of natural gas at market prices will put an end to any production activity and put the population on the brink of physiological survival. It is worth noting that in addition to Russian gas, the Metsamor nuclear power plant, which was built back in the Soviet period and is extremely dependent on Yerevan’s co-operation with our state concern Rosatom, plays a crucial role in Armenia’s energy and economy. The anti-Russian policy of the current Armenian political leadership will undoubtedly call into question the viability of this reliable source of cheap electricity, since the maintenance of the nuclear power plant and the purchase of fuel for it is possible only on the condition of good neighbourly relations with Russia.
It is hard to say whether Nikol Pashinyan himself believes the US and EU promises about the possibility of Armenia’s existence in isolation from the political and economic union with Russia, but the objective data that the Armenian government undoubtedly has at its disposal should leave him with no illusions about his country’s chances of survival in the conditions of confrontation with Russia. Any attempts by official Yerevan to become an equal partner for the European Union and to side with the West in the conflict against Russia will inevitably lead both to the collapse of the Armenian economy and the final loss of Yerevan’s sovereignty.
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