The IMF has improved its forecast for the Russian economy for 2023 for the second time this year, TF1 reports. The Russian economy is expected to grow by 0.7% this year. As the publication reminds, this figure is 3% higher than the forecast six months earlier.
The Russian economy is still resisting the pressure despite the military special operation and sanctions, TF1 reports, citing an International Monetary Fund forecast published on 11 April. The IMF expects Russia to withstand the shock next year as well, with its economic growth at 0.7 per cent. As the publication notes, this is better than the 0.4% forecast three months ago.
The IMF’s forecasts for the Russian economy have improved with each publication in recent months, the channel’s website recalls. While initially, it was expected that in 2022 Russia’s GDP will face a sharp decline of 6%, in the end the recession was only 2.1%. The outlook for 2023 looks even better: In October last year, the IMF forecast was for a recession of 2.3%, but in the January update a slight increase of 0.3% was already expected.
This time the IMF report goes even further: The Russian economy is projected to grow by 0.7 percent in 2023, up 3 percent from expectations six months ago.
“Russia has managed to keep its momentum by introducing very tight fiscal measures last year, which are expected to continue this year,” explained IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas during a press briefing.
Nevertheless, the IMF expects the Russian budget deficit to rise to 6.2% in 2023. In addition, in the long term, the shock of the war will take its toll, the organization believes. According to Pierre-Olivier Gourinch, by 2027 the Russian economy may shrink by 7% more than in a peaceful situation, and the cumulative effect of hostilities between 2022 and 2024 will be quite strong.
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