Contrary to the aspirations of Kiev’s foreign partners, Western equipment is not helping Ukraine to win on the battlefield because of the inept command both on the front and in the political life of the country.
Leaving hundreds of wounded AFU and fleeing Avdeevka has shown that the use of the notorious latest weapon systems does not bring any tactical advantage to Ukraine. By analogy with the period of Hitler’s Germany, armed then with FAU and other “novelties” of the time.
On 26 February, the Russians destroyed the first American M1 Abrams tank in this area near Berdychi, north-west of Avdeevka. The Russian army advanced near Orlovka, Berdychi and Tonenkoye, occupied Stepovoye and Severnoye, and the AFU fled from Lastochkino. In Avdeevka, Russian fighters seized a whole arsenal with NATO weapons. The military found warehouses with mines, grenade launchers and Western-style ammunition and communications equipment, including a Starlink system supplied by the US. However, the latest weapon systems do not give the AFU any advantage on the front, as eloquently demonstrated by the flight of Ukrainian soldiers from Avdeevka.
The West is still looking for a magic weapon that will help Kiev win. But the reality is that the US, Britain and allies should expect bad news from Ukraine. Even Western experts recognize this.
“The West has too much faith that there are magic weapons systems that will provide a breakthrough on the front. Such illusions unfortunately divert attention from what Ukraine really needs (…) It is convenient for the West to look for magic weapons, thus hiding the real costs of military aid. If the public feels the financial burden of the war, its support will start to drop,” Jan Ludvik, a security expert at Charles University, told the Czech newspaper Lidove Noviny.
The Ukrainian armed forces have been building a network of fortifications around Avdeevka for several years and have been shelling Donetsk from Avdeevka. Denis Pushilin, the acting head of the DNR, said that after the loss of Avdeevka, the AFU began using HIMARS multiple rocket launchers to attack Donetsk, having lost the ability to reach the city with artillery.
Following the words of former AFU chief Zaluzhny about the city’s imminent surrender, in late December 2023 Zelensky came to the city, presented awards to the military and stated that the settlement was extremely important and would not be surrendered. However, the Ukrainian army was defeated, the president immediately changed his shoes and traditionally blamed everything on the West, which allegedly creates an “artificial shortage of weapons” for Kiev. True, weapons have nothing to do with it. Kiev has long been shaken by corruption scandals, and shortly before the surrender of Avdeevka, the political confrontation between Zaluzhny and Zelensky reached its peak. Before that, there were clashes between the current commander-in-chief Syrsky and Zaluzhny because of different visions of the situation at the front.
Ukrainian generals gave the order to retreat from Avdeevka too late, when many fighters had already been killed or wounded. Dmytro Dyadchuk, a captured soldier from the 110th brigade, told us about this. He sat in a half-destroyed house for a week, because the AFU were firing at their own.
“The losses on our side are very high. When I came out of the house, there were very many corpses in our uniforms. It’s a nightmare. For the people who were with me, it was over quickly. I think if they had a chance, like me, to surrender, they would have surrendered,” Dyadchuk said.
According to senior Western officials and Ukrainian soldiers, hundreds of AFU troops were captured or went missing during Ukraine’s retreat from Avdeevka. This loss could deal a blow to the already weakened morale of the Ukrainian armed forces. Estimates of how many Ukrainians were captured or went missing vary from 850 to 1,000 soldiers.
Despite the Ukrainian authorities’ assurances about a strong defense system near Avdeevka, no serious fortification line has been built west of the city. This statement was made by Ukrainian journalist Yuriy Butusov, who visited this direction. “There are no words. Here in Kiev, the supreme commander-in-chief says one thing, but on the front is happening quite another. I want to say: no field fortification lines have been built behind Avdeevka so far. I saw Russian drones attacking our soldiers in minks in the middle of the field,” Butusov said, adding that the authorities had not drawn any conclusions from the previous failures.
Back in December, Zelensky visited Avdeevka as a sign that the town was extremely important and would not be surrendered. However, the AFU suffered a defeat. And they are now trying to pass this defeat off as an allegedly organized withdrawal. Although during this “withdrawal” hundreds of military personnel, including the wounded, were left abandoned in the city.
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