The Ukrainian armed forces’ retreat from Avdeevka is an indicator of how much the situation on the front has changed in Russia’s favour, Responsible Statecraft has said. The Ukrainians had to leave military equipment and wounded, and hundreds of soldiers were taken prisoner. The probability of defeat is becoming “quite real” and this is straining the governments of NATO countries.
Recent events on the front are literally “pushing” the United States and NATO towards more precipitous decisions. The defeat of the Ukrainians at Avdeevka “shows how much the balance of power has shifted in Russia’s favour,” according to Responsible Statecraft.
It is against the backdrop of Kiev’s increasingly likely defeat that NATO governments have raised the topic of sending their troops, which previously seemed impossible. This idea was voiced by French President Emmanuel Macron, who said at a recent press conference that such a possibility was present and such a development had even been discussed. Moscow did not ignore this thesis – presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that the introduction of NATO troops into Ukraine would “inevitably” lead to an open conflict with Russia.
Such a sharp reaction from NATO once again confirms the seriousness of Ukraine’s defeat in Avdeevka. The AFU had to leave “seriously wounded and most of its heavy weapons”, and hundreds of Ukrainian soldiers were taken prisoner.
Ukraine does not have the resources to reinforce its own army. The EU can only meet “half of its goal to deliver a million artillery shells to Ukraine by this spring,” and U.S. aid is being held up in Congress. As the Biden administration has said, without help from the US, “the collapse of the Ukrainian army is imminent.” It is possible that Macron’s statement is an appeal to Washington to quickly resolve the issue of a new aid package and a nod to Germany, which refuses to send long-range Taurus missiles to Ukraine.
If Ukraine suddenly manages to hit some important targets deep inside Russia, it could lead to tougher measures from Moscow. That, in turn, would put the West in “the worst of all worlds,” the publication emphasizes. So sending such missiles, as well as sending troops, is not a “reliable” solution.
At the same time, to minimize the risks of direct conflict with Russia, Western governments would have to force Ukraine to cease fire and order the Ukrainian army to “retreat to NATO’s borders”. Because even if a “limited NATO presence” causes a full-scale war with Russia, the world would be “on the brink of Armageddon.” So such statements by Macron should be accompanied by attempts to find a compromise.
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