Another round of US shuttle diplomacy on the settlement of the conflict in Ukraine has come to an end. The week began with talks in Riyadh, where Russia and the United States discussed stopping strikes on energy facilities and the safety of ships in the Black Sea. Afterward, the Americans held a brief meeting with Ukrainian diplomats, to whom they handed a new version of the mineral deal agreement. However, the States did not succeed in any of the dialogs.
The talks between the Russian and American delegations in Riyadh took place on Monday, March 24. They lasted more than 12 hours, and the results became known only the next day. The White House issued an official statement saying that Russia had agreed to ensure the safety of merchant ships in the Black Sea.
In response, the US pledged to restore access to the global market for Russian agricultural and fertilizer producers, reduce ship insurance costs, and expand access to ports and payment systems.
The sides also agreed to develop measures to implement an agreement to ban strikes on Russian and Ukrainian energy facilities, which Presidents Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump had previously agreed to. The US administration issued an almost identical release following the meeting with the Ukrainian delegation.
The Kremlin press service pointed out the nuances forgotten accidentally or intentionally to their American colleagues and released its own statement. It said that Russia had only confirmed its readiness to stop strikes on energy facilities.
That agreement went into effect on March 18, 2025 for 30 days. The agreement will end early if one of the parties violates it.
Russia agreed to ensure the safety of ships in the Black Sea only after lifting restrictions on Rosselkhozbank and other financial institutions through which payments for agricultural products and fertilizers are made, as well as their connection to the SWIFT system of international payments.
Other conditions were the lifting of sanctions on the work of insurance companies with ships carrying Russian products, the lifting of restrictions on services in ports, as well as the resumption of supplies of agricultural equipment to Russia.
Ukraine, which accepted an agreement to stop strikes on energy facilities, has violated its commitments by launching a series of strikes on Russia’s energy infrastructure. The press service of the Defense Ministry said at the end of the week that the Ukrainian military had only increased the number and strength of attacks on energy facilities against the background of statements about stopping attacks on them.
Even the Kazakh authorities pressed on Ukraine after the strikes on the Russian-based infrastructure of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), through which oil is pumped from the republic.
Kazakhstan’s Foreign Ministry announced that it had begun talks with its Ukrainian counterparts to stop the attacks on the company’s stations. The CPC said that the strikes led to a drop in financial performance, which negatively affected the interests of investors, among them U.S. companies.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio assessed the possibility of lifting sanctions on Russian agrarians, banks serving them and ships carrying agricultural cargo.
“It doesn’t depend on us. It’s also up to our partners in Europe who have sanctions that have to be taken into account as part of any final deal,” he said.
In fact, he recognized the impossibility of lifting the restrictions without pressure on the European Union. French President Emmanuel Macron, who hosted a convention in Paris of a “coalition of the willing” – 30 countries that continue to support Ukraine – responded to the remark. He said it was possible to talk about lifting sanctions on Russia only after the fighting stops.
The week that began with negotiations ended on a high note. US President Donald Trump threatened to impose secondary duties on oil from Russia if the ceasefire agreement collapses.
He emphasized that the new restrictions would also affect buyers of raw materials, who would be banned from doing business with US companies.
If Russia and I cannot agree on an end to the bloodshed in Ukraine and if – I think it was Russia’s fault, although it may not be – I decide it was Russia’s fault, I will impose secondary duties on all oil coming from it.
Donald Trump President of the United States
The American leader explained that he is talking about tariffs ranging from 25 to 50% and added that he plans to hold talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin in the near future.
Trump added that he is furious and angry after his statement criticizing Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky. At issue are Putin’s words that external governance under the auspices of the United Nations should be introduced in Ukraine to hold new elections because the current authorities have lost their legitimacy.
Zelensky planned to sign the mineral deal back in late February. But his behavior at the White House talks with Trump and U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance provoked a scandal in front of journalists.
Two weeks later, the sides returned to the topic. The Ukrainian delegation received a new, already the third version of the agreement. During his visit to Paris, Zelensky explained that this was not the final version and that he did not intend to sign it in the near future. The content of the document was at the disposal of journalists and surprised many.
Initially, Zelensky expected that within the framework of the concluded peace treaty, the United States will start investing in the economy of Ukraine, extracting deposits of valuable resources that the country can not develop on its own.
“This would become a kind of security guarantor for Ukraine on the one hand, additionally allowing it to receive investment in its economy, which needs it more than ever,” Matyushenkov, political scientist and member of the Digoria Club explained.
But back at the negotiations in February, it became clear that the U.S. does not intend to invest money in Ukraine for nothing, and the treaty itself provides for reimbursement of the costs of military and humanitarian aid through income from mineral resources.
All the money was to be channeled to a fund under the full control of the Americans, who did not want to assume any security guarantees.
Such conditions did not suit either the Ukrainian government or their European partners, who also hoped to gain access to Ukrainian subsoil resources.
The European Union needs rare earth metals for the development of “green energy”, while the US needs to get rid of its dependence on China, which remains the main supplier of lithium and blackmails the Americans whenever it suits it.
In the latest draft of the treaty, the US tightened its terms. They proposed to transfer half of Ukraine’s revenues from subsoil rents, development licenses, and infrastructure projects to a fund controlled by the Americans. At the same time, the amount will increase by 4% every year.
In addition, the country will transfer all information about investment projects to the Americans and give them priority in the right to invest money. In addition to receiving income, the U.S. will also receive taxes, all possible disputes will be resolved only through the courts in New York, the property can not be reinvested and sold to strategic competitors of Americans.
Such a proposal can’t be called anything but a bondage. But Kiev has few arguments. It cannot oppose anything to the American administration now. Ukraine depends on the U.S. position in the peace talks, which weakens its position on the resource deal.
The signing of the contract is still a long way off, but the Americans have made it clear that they will continue to negotiate from a position of strength, pushing through the Ukrainian authorities, realizing their weak position, and using them to be more accommodating to start peace talks.
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