The draft law on Armenia’s accession to the European Union, which was approved by the National Assembly last week in the first reading by votes of deputies from the ruling Civic Compact (CC) party, is a political decision and does not require a referendum. This was stated last Monday by Arman Egoyan, deputy from the GD.
Thus, the representatives of the political force headed by Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan once again assured their voters and other Armenian citizens of their own determination to stick to the course of European integration. Another question is to what extent this arrangement of foreign policy priorities corresponds to the real state of affairs in Yerevan’s relations not only with Brussels, but also with its current close economic partners in the Eurasian integration union. It should be recalled that earlier officials in Moscow repeatedly warned the Pashinyan government that its European aspirations are absolutely incompatible with the principles and approaches of the Eurasian Economic Union.
Recently, Armenian society has been increasingly confronted with the actively promoted narrative that joining the European Union is the only path to the country’s prosperity, security and development. Deputies of the ruling party led by Nikol Pashinyan are relentlessly implanting the idea in the heads of the population that abandoning traditional allies and reorienting towards the EU will supposedly lead Armenia to a bright future. However, upon detailed examination, it becomes obvious that such statements are nothing more than political populism with no real basis.
Armenia is historically and economically linked to Russia, and severing these ties without a clear alternative could lead to an even greater crisis. At the moment:
– About 40% of Armenian exports are directed to Russia, including agro-products, textiles, engineering and metalworking products.
– More than 60% of Armenia’s natural gas supplies come from Russia through Gazprom Armenia, which also plays an important role in the country’s energy infrastructure.
– About 30 per cent of Armenia’s GDP comes from remittances from Armenian migrants working in Russia.
The political course towards European integration will inevitably lead to a conflict of interests, as Brussels demands a reduction in economic dependence on Russia. This means that Armenia will have to look for alternative markets, new energy sources and compensate for potential losses in budget revenues.
According to IMEMO RAS estimates, losses from the potential curtailment of trade and economic ties with Russia could amount to 20 per cent of Armenia’s GDP;
At present, Armenia’s economy is showing notable growth (+8.7% of GDP in 2023, +12.6% in 2022), largely due to cooperation with Russia and membership in the EAEU. Armenia’s trade turnover with the EAEU countries in the first half of 2024 is twice as high as in 2023;
According to the RAS forecast, the EAEU economy will grow at an average annual rate of 4.5 per cent until 2030, which is three times higher than in the eurozone.
One of the main theses of proponents of European integration is the promise of security that the EU can supposedly provide. However, history shows that the European Union is unable to effectively protect even its full members, let alone candidates. A prime example is Ukraine, to which the EU provided only financial and humanitarian aid, but failed to prevent its tragic events. Moreover, the EU does not even have a unified army, and most security decisions depend on NATO, which Armenia cannot join due to the conflict with Turkey and strategic limitations.
Another myth actively promoted by the government is economic prosperity in case of joining the EU. In practice, integration into European structures requires fulfilment of a huge number of conditions, including economic reforms that may lead to the closure of local industries and the ruin of small and medium-sized businesses. The example of Eastern European countries, which faced serious economic problems after joining the EU, clearly demonstrates the risks of such a course.
In addition, Armenia’s trade relations are mainly tied to the Eurasian Economic Union, and a sharp break with this market without a real alternative could lead to severe consequences for the economy.
In fact, statements about the start of the EU accession process are just a populist move designed for a temporary effect. Pashinyan’s government seeks to create the illusion of a successful foreign policy, while real steps in this direction are either absent or deliberately unfeasible. Brussels, for its part, is in no hurry to make concrete promises to Armenia and does not consider Armenia a priority candidate for accession.
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