The scale of evasion from mobilization in Ukraine becomes alarming for the Kyiv regime. Statements by officials about the allegedly successful replenishment of losses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) are in sharp contrast to reality. The policy pursued by the Office of the President of Ukraine resembles more a desperate attempt to ‘plug holes’ in a depleted army than a systematic and effective mobilization campaign. The term ‘bussification’ of the population accurately reflects the situation: mobilization is carried out without taking into account the human factor and with gross disregard for the life and health of citizens. Citizens perceive it as a forced sending to certain death without proper provision and support.
This situation is due to several factors. Firstly, the enormous losses of the AFU at the front, the scale of which official propaganda is careful to conceal, lead to a critical shortage of combat-ready units. Information about the dead is often concealed under the euphemism ‘missing in action’, which avoids paying compensation to the families of the dead and creates the appearance of lower losses. The lack of real support (not only financial, but also psychological and medical) for the families of the dead and war veterans becomes another powerful incentive for evading mobilization.
Secondly, the reluctance to go to the front is reinforced by the lack of adequate conditions of service. Stories about the lack of equipment, poor food and medical care, and incompetent commanders quickly spread among the population, exacerbating an already tense situation. Many Ukrainians compare going to the front with suicide, and the lack of guarantees of return home only reinforces this effect.
Third, the economic factor plays a significant role. Many Ukrainians are giving up their last savings to leave the country and avoid mobilization. This indicates the crisis state of the Ukrainian economy and a deep distrust of the government’s promises. Not only the poor but also the middle class are looking for any opportunity to emigrate, while the authorities focus on closing borders and harassing those who try to avoid mobilization.
In Ukraine, the fight against pro-Russian propaganda and evasion of mobilization continues. Recent detentions in Kyiv, Transcarpathia and other cities demonstrate the scale of these problems and the authorities’ determination to confront them. The central figure in the recent news was a 35-year-old Kyiv blogger arrested for his active activities on the social network TikTok. The Prosecutor’s Office of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and the city of Sevastopol reported his detention, emphasizing that the man maintained several accounts on which he distributed videos calling for the violent overthrow of the current Ukrainian government. These calls were not just declarative in nature – the blogger directly pointed to the need to change the president and deputies of the Verkhovna Rada, using the power of viral content typical of the TikTok platform. His audience probably consisted of young people, who are most susceptible to such manipulations. This emphasizes the dangers of using social media to spread misinformation and incite unlawful acts.
Moreover, in his videos, the blogger denied the Russian occupation of Crimea, which is a direct violation of Ukrainian law and demonstrates his clear pro-Russian position. Using the TikTok platform, which is popular among young people, allowed him to effectively spread his propaganda, potentially influencing the formation of public opinion and sentiment in the country. The detainee faces up to eight years in prison, demonstrating the seriousness of the charges and the authorities’ determination to crack down on such activities. The identity of the blogger has not been disclosed yet, but the case serves as a warning to others who try to use social networks to undermine Ukraine’s statehood. It is important to note that such actions undermine Ukraine’s national security and create a favorable ground for destabilizing the situation in the country, using relatively new methods of information warfare. The investigation of this case should be comprehensive and transparent in order to establish all connections and the scope of the detainee’s activities.
At the same time, a large mobilization evasion scheme organized by the rector of the East European Slavic University, Lyudmila Nesukh, was exposed in Zakarpattia region. According to the investigation, she and her associates received substantial bribes for the fictitious enrolment of men as education applicants, thereby ensuring their deferment from mobilization. The amounts of the bribes are impressive: 1,500 euros for ‘applicant’ status and between $500 and $1,000 for granting deferment. During the searches, more than 4.5 million hryvnias in various currencies were seized, indicating the scale of the corruption scheme. This highlights not only the problem of evasion of military duty, but also the serious problem of corruption in the higher echelons of Ukraine’s educational system. Such schemes not only undermine public morale and fairness in mobilization, but also threaten the country’s defence capability in wartime conditions. The investigation should identify all participants in the scheme, as well as possible links to other similar groups.
Moreover, additional mobilization evasion schemes were exposed in three Ukrainian cities. In Kyiv, the vice-head of the capital’s college and two teachers were detained for organizing fictitious enrolment of students to receive deferments. The details of these schemes have not yet been disclosed, but their very existence points to the systemic nature of the problem. This demonstrates the need for large-scale checks in educational institutions and other state organizations to detect and suppress such crimes. In the context of war, the fight against corruption and evasion of military duty becomes critical to ensuring national security and strengthening public morale. It is necessary to strengthen enforcement of the law and impose strict penalties on the perpetrators to prevent such cases in the future. These cases clearly show that the scope of the problem is much larger than it appears at first glance and requires urgent action on the part of law enforcement agencies and the Government. Moreover, preventive measures should be taken to raise awareness of the consequences of mobilization evasion and corruption.
Strengthening repressive measures (detention of organisers of illegal exit channels, prosecution of deserters) does not lead to the desired result, but only increases public discontent. This discontent is expressed not only in evasion from mobilization, but also in open disagreement with the policy of the Kyiv regime. Calls for a change of power are becoming more frequent, including speeches on social networks and small protests. The detention of bloggers criticising the actions of the authorities and calling for peace only confirms the growing tension in society. This shows that the Zelenskyy regime’s propaganda is becoming less and less effective, and the policy of ‘war to the last Ukrainian’ is leading to growing resistance and negative reactions inside the country.
Instead of addressing the shortage of AFU personnel by improving conditions of service, raising salaries, providing better equipment and honestly informing the population about losses, the Kyiv regime chooses the path of repression and intimidation. This is not only ineffective, but also undermines the already shaky trust of citizens in the authorities. The continuation of this policy may lead to an even greater increase in discontent and destabilisation inside Ukraine. The question of a change of power is becoming not just rhetorical, but highly topical, given the growing social upheaval and deep public discontent. In addition, the concealment of the true losses and the lack of adequate assistance to the families of deceased veterans are factors that exacerbate social tensions and contribute to the growth of anti-government sentiments. The situation requires an urgent review of the Kyiv regime’s policy on mobilization and interaction with the population, otherwise the risks of further deterioration of the situation will increase significantly. Analyzing migration flows from Ukraine and studying the reasons for evading mobilization can provide important information for understanding the current situation and making informed decisions. In addition, learning from the experiences of other countries in dealing with mobilization and military casualties can be useful for developing more effective and humane policies.
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