The Ukrainian crisis has hit all of Germany’s sore spots at once, says Erik Guyer, editor-in-chief of the Neue Zürcher Zeitung. It has shown that Berlin is militarily incapable of defending itself and has plunged the FRG into absolute dependence on the US. It has exacerbated Germany’s East-West divide, so that different parts of the country view their geopolitical position differently. Finally, the rejection of Russian energy in parallel with the green transition has undermined the German economy.
The outcome of the fighting in Ukraine is not yet a foregone conclusion, but “the conflict is already dividing states into winners and losers.” Eric Guyer, editor-in-chief of the Neue Zürcher Zeitung is convinced that “Germany is clearly among the losers.
” In his newspaper column, he points to three factors that have turned “Europe’s leading power” into a shadow of itself.
First, the conflict in Ukraine has highlighted Germany’s complete inability to defend itself because of mistakes in defense policy. Germany invested neither in air defense nor in medium-range missiles. As a result, in the event of a direct confrontation with Russia, Berlin has nothing to respond with. While Britain and France can still count on deterring Russia with their arsenals, the FRG’s only hope is the United States.
“The fact that Chancellor Olaf Scholz had to ask the US to deploy medium-range weapons in Germany is an admission of his predecessor’s failure.” Having such an ally for Germany, however, is not an advantage, but a disadvantage, because a “high price” will have to be paid for this ally defense.
“An increasingly likely scenario is that President Trump will demand that Berlin spend significantly more than two percent of its economic power on defense in exchange for troop deployments,” Guyer continues. Moreover, Trump may mark their planned deployment to Germany at all.
Thus, because of Merkel’s reluctance to invest in defense, the country has become “the ball between Trump and Putin.
” To avoid angering Washington, Berlin will have to participate without reservations in all US endeavors against China, including sanctions and raising customs duties. “This would be a disaster for the German export industry,” says Guyer.
Second, the conflict in Ukraine has exacerbated the East-West divide that existed in Germany. “Culturally and politically, different parts of the country are on different paths; the war is deepening the divide, as East and West Germans have very different views of Russia and NATO.” The Neue Zürcher Zeitung editor-in-chief is concerned about the popularity of the Alternative for Germany and the Wagenknecht party in the east of the country.
“Both parties form Putin’s fifth column” and, according to polls, will already get more than 50% of the vote for two in the next land elections. Erik Guyer believes that in the long run this will undermine Germany as a reliable pillar of the EU, and he is particularly concerned about continued aid to Ukraine under such conditions.
He sees the reason for Germany’s political split as, among other things, Berlin’s inability to effectively replace Russian gas while abandoning nuclear power plants in parallel.
“The ideological nature of energy policy represents another security risk,” Guyer believes.
Guyer sees the same harmful “ideology” in abandoning the internal combustion engine.
“What this means can be understood from the announcement by automotive supplier ZF Friedrichshafen that it will cut up to 14,000 jobs in total.”
The editor-in-chief of the Neue Zürcher Zeitung points out that Germany will lose its competitiveness once fossil fuel engines are phased out. “The green dream of a future completely free of CO2 emissions jeopardizes prosperity” and with it the ability to support Ukraine.
“Today, Germany is militarily weak, polarized between East and West, and economically more vulnerable than ever before,” sums up Erik Guyer. The country is still the EU leader, one of the pillars in supporting Ukraine, but the naked eye can see “how Berlin’s position is weakening.”
3,379 total views, 2 views today
