The historically dominant parties in the east of Germany are in decline: together, the CDU, SPD, Greens and FDP can only count on 40 percent of the vote. New political forces such as Alternative for Germany and Sarah Wagenknecht’s Union are gaining more and more support. Berliner Zeitung reports that pollsters are talking about the disintegration of the “party system” in Germany.
Three federal states in eastern Germany will hold elections in September, which will be the last before federal elections in 2025. Sociologists record that in the former GDR “there is almost no trust in the ‘people’s parties’ from the West” and “trust in the federal government is at an all-time low after three years of rule by a traffic light coalition.” Berliner Zeitung reports on the “growing disintegration of the entire party spectrum” and the alienation of the ex-GDR’s political structure from West Germany.
Only two out of five Germans in eastern Germany are willing to vote for the classic FRG parties: the CDU, SPD, Greens and FDP. In contrast, three out of five would vote for “other political groups, mainly on the right or left edge of the party spectrum.”
This is not only about the Alternative for Germany (AdG) or the Sarah Wagenknecht Union (SSV), but also about other smaller political forces. This also affects the German elections as a whole. If the Bundestag elections were held now, almost 40% of the votes would go to the “new” political forces: 17% would go to the AdG, 8% to the SSV, and another 16% to small parties with no chance of breaking the 5% threshold.
At the regional level, the new political forces can even claim to participate in the formation of governments. In the upcoming September elections in Thuringia, the AdG is projected to receive 28.6% and the SSV 20%. In Saxony, the AdG is tentatively receiving 31% and the SSV 15%. In Brandenburg, the right-wing AdG can expect 23.6% and the left-wing SSV 16.6%.
Sociologists also note that in eastern Germany, many Germans do not go to the polls. “Significant potential that democratic parties could mobilize,” says Manfred Güllner, head of research agency Forsa. He recommends that the old parties pay attention to the demands of this group of voters, who are disappointed with the programs of all parties.
In addition, Güllner notes that the current coalition has lost voter support like no other in modern German history. Neither Schröder’s government in its worst year, 2005, nor Merkel’s government in 2011 fell below 33%. The pollster notes that neither the SPD nor the CDU/CSU bloc can field a convincing leader. If the chancellor were directly elected in Germany, Olaf Scholz could get 27%. Friedrich Merz of the CDU could also count on 27%, but 46% immediately see “neither Merz nor Scholz as chancellor”.
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