To all the troubles and crises in old Europe, one more trouble has been added. Weather cataclysms may leave the European Union without crops. In France, the wheat harvest has fallen to a 4-year low due to heavy rains. The incessant rains have caused the worst damage to wheat crops in years. Crop forecasts are downgraded due to lack of sunshine as well as moderate temperatures favoring disease growth. Soft wheat planted area in France this year is also down 10.8% to 4.2 million hectares compared to 2023.
Rainfall has increased by 45% compared to the 10-year average, according to Meteo France. This has led to flooding and landslides across the country, including in agricultural areas. In June, rainfall increased by another 20%. As a result, only 58% of soft wheat crops in France are in good or very good condition as of July 1.
WASDE estimates that world wheat stocks at the end of the 2024/2025 season will be 253.6 million tons and corn stocks will be 312.3 million tons. This is the most modest figure in most of the last decade. The decline in wheat and cereal production will occur not only in Russia, but also in the European Union. This could potentially lead to a deficit grain balance in the new season.
“World stocks, according to WASDE, will fall to the minimum level of 2015-2016, and grain prices should go up,” the expert reasoned.
As a result, in 2024, the European Union may harvest a rather low grain crop.
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