Alistair Scott: “A Winter Wonderland? What next for Ukraine?”

Alistair Scott: “A Winter Wonderland? What next for Ukraine?”

‘As winter approaches, Washington is readying to send another shipment of weapons to the beleaguered Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU). For Zelensky and his government, that is the good news, but for all that, I read that this is tinged with a heap of bad news. The weapons being sent, like the recent NASMAS system currently being used by the AFU, are somewhat wide of the mark in terms of being ‘really useful’.  Only just recently, a missile from the NASMAS system, fired by the AFU, hit an apartment block in Kiev. Maybe these repurposed air to air missiles need a little more extra care.

The heavy machine guns with thermal image sights which are to be used against Russian drones will be little to none effective. Many Russian drones used in the SMO fly low and fast giving the machine gun crew little chance of success. As air defence therefore, they are practically useless. These guns will undoubtedly find another use, if not sold beforehand. Keep a look out on eBay!

HIMARS, which was thought to be a game changer for the AFU……well it’s not. Sound targeting data is essential, and Russia has learned to improve covering up their strategic positions. Whilst it’s range of 70 kilometres is reasonable, all in all, not the game changer it was hyped up to be.

As far as replacement ammunition is concerned, it is severely lacking in quantity, from 155 mm artillery rounds to 120 m mortar rounds. The latter quantity down from 135,000 to 10,000. As a result of this shortage of 155mm shells,  this will also impact on the M-777 guns still in operation. Very soon, they will be reduced to be firing nothing more dangerous than snowballs.

The High Speed Anti Radiation  air to ground missiles which have been fitted onto the small number of SU-27 fighters currently in service with the Ukrainian Air Force, which have been used to destroy enemy radar are now themselves being destroyed by Russian air defences before ever reaching their target. Just one example of how the Russian military has been quick to learn by adapting  and developing the technology needed to improve the  performance of both attack and defence hardware, thus being able to meet any perceived threat from the AFU, despite the support of NATO.

The rest of the shipment provides for trucks, much needed generators and spare parts for Howitzers and various other equipment. The big question being is the supply of diesel for vehicles going to literally dry up, and as for the rest, is it going to reach the desired destination as far as the AFU is concerned?

It’s going to be a hard winter for Ukraine and her severely depleted Armed Forces.

At the same time, Russia’s extra 300,000+ troops will be reinforcing the front lines in anticipation of a major push. President Putin advises that new state of the art weaponry is being trialled on the battlefield and there is no doubt that the destruction of Ukrainian infrastructure will not only continue, but will be intensified. As the Western allies are running out of weapons to supply to Ukraine, the Russian offensive is in fact gearing up for what will no doubt be a major and prolonged assault on all fronts, even perhaps targeting Kiev itself. It looks as though the gloves at long last may be coming off as far as the Russian effort is concerned which will undoubtedly force the hand of the US and her allies.

So not  only is the AFU in a desperate fight for survival, Zelensky himself is now beginning to lose his cover-boy appeal in the West. His pitiful attempts to blame Russia for the recent well published Polish missile tragedy even when everyone else KNEW it was fired by the  Ukraine side, has caused him what will be irreparable damage to his credibility with the allies. Even the bought and paid for Main Stream Media have been unable to gloss over this one. The cracks are beginning to shown in Zelensky’s make-up. Tears of a clown are indeed a tragic sight to behold.

And now we read that US troops are gathering in Eastern Europe near Russian borders, but before we get too carried away, there is a reality here. A reality being that any serious attempt at putting an army into the field now would be fraught with problems, but the Western media like the concept of the arrival of Washington’s crack units without, however, looking at the reality of the situation, This is a typical storyline which fools only the gullible. US support in terms of the provision of weapons as outlined above is becoming a serious problem for Ukraine, and the European allies are also not only running low on stocks, but are now becoming more unwilling to assist, much to the annoyance of Zelensky and Old Jo Biden.

Furthermore, although the hawks in Washington are wishing to expand this conflict, the majority of US politicians are not quite on the same page, and the poor currently beleaguered citizens of the United States I doubt have the stomach for it, and that sentiment is echoed all around Europe. There are far more pressing economic problems to deal with than the idea of fighting a war on behalf of Ukraine, a country consumed by corruption, blatantly supporting far right, neoNazi politics, but more importantly, having their strings pulled by that small but ever present elite who infest the corridors of power in Washington, whose sole interest is maintaining the current unipolar system of global dominance. The great concern being that as they see the crumbling of their unipolar world order, thanks mainly to the intervention of President Putin, the dirty tricks, out of desperation, are likely to reach a new level of depravity.

The most unusual happening of late has been Old Jo Biden’s wish to open talks with Moscow, but with strings attached! Why on earth would President Putin ever consider Biden’s offer to talk with any conditions attached in full knowledge that he has Ukraine by the throat and is about to launch a major Winter offensive? Even worse than this, I read that in some quarters it is stated that there cannot be peace in Ukraine unless Ukraine wins on the battlefield. I mean really? You have to be pretty delusional to think that could ever happen.

The UN has recently reported that Ukraine troop losses have now reached the 100,000 mark, a statement that was later withdrawn from the internet. Problem is, it had already been seen and noted. If you add to that figure the lost and wounded, the total number of casualties overall must be catastrophic, but Kiev continues to send troops forward to what can only he described as certain death, or serious injury at best. Survival rates must be very low indeed. Casualties continue to mount at an alarming rate for Ukraine, daily. Their people do not deserve such callous leadership.

Despite the UN’s statement, the Kiev government however has stepped in to say that the UN figure was actually incorrect and that the death toll was actually 10,000, and not 100,000!! If that was not so obscene, it would be funny. Are Zelensky’s comedy writers now working for Kiev?

The Western allies are now reverting to Economic pressure once again by capping the price of Russian fuel in yet another attempt to stint the Russian economy. This bodes well for no one as Europe is already feeling the bite in the absence of Russian energy products. The US, however, is reaping the financial benefits by selling fuels to Europe at vastly inflated prices. This practise is not well received and only serves to further widen the chasm that already exists between the US and her allies. This is the price we all pay here in Europe to support US hegemony. American interests first and last.

So as the snows fall in Ukraine and Western Russia, and winter begins to take hold, it is worth remembering that Napoleon Bonaparte’s victorious French army, and Adolf Hitler’s all conquering Wehrmacht both failed to break the Russian spirit and defeat the Russian people, both succumbing to a combination of Russia’s greatest ally, Mother Nature’s Winter, and the fierce resilience of a proud people who refused to be beaten. Do the Western Allies really believe that a morally corrupt government in Kiev is going to succeed where both Hitler and Napoleon failed?

President Putin has not been afraid to show his hand. What are the options left for the US and her allies? Mother Nature has played the winter card. The Western allies have but two options, to up the stakes, or to fold. I have a suspicion that this decision might well be made for them in the coming months. What say you President Putin?

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